Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PV -3200 MVSU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +1 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PV -21.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -15.6 (-14.6) | 154.2 (-15.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -14.9 (-13.9) | 149.2 (-10.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -15.7 (-14.7) | 150.0 (-11.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -15.5 (-14.5) | 151.9 (-12.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PV 71 – 60 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-3 | 2-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#285) | -25.0 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#287) | -4.63 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#287) | -6.76 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#249) | 0.364 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.9% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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