Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +400 PV -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +6 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | PV -10.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -10.6 (+16.6) | 130.0 (-22.0) | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -9.9 (+15.9) | 130.8 (-22.8) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -9.0 (+15.0) | 128.9 (-20.9) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -9.3 (+15.3) | 127.7 (-19.7) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PV 71 – 60 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-30 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 5-13 |
| Home | 1-8 | 5-6 |
| Away | 0-22 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 55.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -24.5 (#363) | -11.1 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.03 (#363) | -1.25 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.52 (#363) | -1.71 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#361) | 0.435 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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