Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +800 PV -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -15.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -12.8 (+3.8) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -11.6 (+2.6) | 143.8 (-4.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -11.8 (+2.8) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -11.7 (+2.7) | 143.7 (-4.7) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PV 71 – 60 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 4-14 |
| Home | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Away | 1-19 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L9 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 52.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -29.4 (#364) | -10.4 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#360) | -3.03 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.13 (#362) | -3.94 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#325) | 0.397 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 25.3 | 25.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.4% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 57.7% | 57.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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