Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | PV -1600 MVSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | PV -18.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -15.4 (-4.4) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -15.4 (-4.4) | 131.4 (-0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -13.1 (-2.1) | 132.7 (-1.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -13.1 (-2.1) | 133.7 (-2.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 1-17 |
| Home | 5-6 | 1-8 |
| Away | 4-15 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L7 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#309) | -23.2 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#266) | -4.06 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#268) | -5.77 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#273) | 0.418 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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