Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +285 PV -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -11.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -11.0 (+1.0) | 151.8 (-17.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -9.5 (-0.5) | 150.5 (-16.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -10.2 (+0.2) | 145.7 (-11.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -11.3 (+1.3) | 148.0 (-14.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PV 71 – 60 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-18 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -26.6 (#365) | -12.4 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.13 (#365) | -1.98 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.70 (#365) | -2.45 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.323 (#365) | 0.398 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.9% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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