Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +210 WIN -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +21 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -1.9 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-39.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -1.2 (-19.8) | 152.4 (-31.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -4.1 (-16.9) | 151.2 (-30.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.3 (-19.7) | 149.5 (-28.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.5 (-19.5) | 151.4 (-30.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WIN 82 – 80 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#242) | 0.5 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#272) | -0.50 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#304) | -0.71 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#263) | 0.498 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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