Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +240 WIN -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -5.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -6.1 (+4.1) | 140.8 (+21.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.7 (+3.7) | 138.7 (+23.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -5.4 (+3.4) | 138.0 (+24.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -6.1 (+4.1) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#305) | 1.9 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#283) | 0.26 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#292) | 0.47 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#258) | 0.526 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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