Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -1450 UPST +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -12.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -12.8 (-8.8) | 154.4 (-22.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -12.8 (-8.8) | 155.1 (-23.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -11.9 (-7.9) | 150.7 (-18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -11.8 (-7.8) | 152.3 (-20.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WIN 82 – 80 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | -7.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#115) | -1.59 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#136) | -2.11 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#61) | 0.448 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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