Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +320 WIN -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +10 | 200 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -8.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.0 (-1.0) | 160.5 (+39.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.6 (-2.4) | 162.5 (+37.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -8.0 (-2.0) | 159.9 (+40.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -9.0 (-1.0) | 158.0 (+42.0) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WIN 82 – 80 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 11-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 16-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#347) | -1.5 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#351) | 0.14 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#348) | 0.08 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#346) | 0.515 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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