Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -500 UPST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -10.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.7 (-0.7) | 144.4 (+12.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -8.0 (+1.0) | 144.1 (+12.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -9.2 (-0.2) | 142.9 (+14.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -9.3 (-0.3) | 142.2 (+14.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WIN 82 – 80 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | -6.8 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#180) | -1.32 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#176) | -1.65 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.437 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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