Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -1800 UPST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +19 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -15.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -11.6 (+7.4) | 157.8 (+13.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -11.5 (+7.5) | 158.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -11.7 (+7.3) | 156.6 (+14.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -11.7 (+7.3) | 156.3 (+14.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WIN 82 – 80 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 2-14 |
| Home | 16-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#185) | -12.6 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#155) | -2.79 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#157) | -3.74 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#153) | 0.400 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 24.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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