Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -120 SAM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.4 (+8.6) | 143.4 (+23.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.9 (+8.1) | 142.6 (+24.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.0 (+9.0) | 141.2 (+25.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.0 (+9.0) | 142.7 (+24.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SAM 89 – 74 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#305) | -5.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#318) | -0.52 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#315) | -0.92 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#340) | 0.470 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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