Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -110 SAM +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +22 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -0.6 (-21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -1.8 (-23.8) | 157.1 (-23.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.2 (-22.2) | 155.6 (-21.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -1.4 (-23.4) | 156.3 (-22.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -1.6 (-23.6) | 157.4 (-23.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SAM 89 – 74 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | 6.3 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#123) | 1.94 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#136) | 1.98 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#140) | 0.583 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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