Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -275 UTC +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -12.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -11.2 (+3.8) | 157.2 (+5.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -12.3 (+2.7) | 157.7 (+5.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -11.5 (+3.5) | 157.7 (+5.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -10.8 (+4.2) | 158.2 (+4.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#95) | -3.2 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | -0.17 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#83) | -0.32 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#123) | 0.464 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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