Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -180 UTC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -4.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -2.9 (+8.1) | 145.7 (-6.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -3.7 (+7.3) | 149.2 (-10.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.5 (+8.5) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.6 (+8.4) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SAM 89 – 74 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#264) | -7.7 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#275) | -1.43 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#273) | -1.81 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#274) | 0.433 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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