Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UTC +120 SAM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -0.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.7 (-3.3) | 158.6 (-16.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.5 (-4.5) | 157.2 (-15.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.4 (-4.4) | 157.8 (-15.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.6 (-4.6) | 156.5 (-14.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SAM 89 – 74 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 12-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#166) | 3.8 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#162) | 1.11 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#160) | 1.10 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.538 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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