Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -118 MERC -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -2.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.4 (-1.4) | 133.2 (+5.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WAG -2.4 (-3.4) | 132.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | WAG -0.7 (-1.7) | 132.4 (+6.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -0.4 (-1.4) | 133.5 (+5.5) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WAG 83 – 80 MERC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MERC 71 – 66 WAG |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MERC 69 – 65 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#291) | -7.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#334) | -2.18 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#337) | -2.79 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#335) | 0.410 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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