Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -225 MERC +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -5.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 111.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.2 (-6.2) | 123.0 (+11.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WAG -1.9 (-5.9) | 123.4 (+10.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | WAG -2.5 (-6.5) | 123.7 (+10.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.8 (-6.8) | 126.0 (+8.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WAG 83 – 80 MERC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MERC 70 – 69 WAG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MERC 71 – 66 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#338) | -13.2 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#303) | -1.96 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#333) | -2.54 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#304) | 0.401 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 26.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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