Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -192 WAG +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | MERC -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -5.0 (-8.0) | 134.4 (+28.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -5.0 (-8.0) | 135.1 (+27.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -5.3 (-8.3) | 136.3 (+26.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -5.1 (-8.1) | 136.4 (+26.6) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MERC 70 – 69 WAG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MERC 71 – 66 WAG |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MERC 69 – 65 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-14 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#278) | -10.2 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#317) | -2.34 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#313) | -3.02 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#290) | 0.407 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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