Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Over |
| Money | MERC +105 WAG -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -3.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -1.4 (+3.6) | 123.9 (+13.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -1.2 (+3.8) | 123.8 (+13.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -2.1 (+2.9) | 125.2 (+11.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -2.0 (+3.0) | 126.6 (+10.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WAG 83 – 80 MERC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MERC 70 – 69 WAG |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MERC 69 – 65 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#347) | -12.5 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#323) | -1.68 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#320) | -2.85 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#320) | 0.408 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 25.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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