Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK -108 DEN -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -0.4 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.4 (-24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -0.2 (+9.8) | 160.7 (-6.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -2.0 (+8.0) | 164.3 (-10.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -0.3 (+10.3) | 166.1 (-12.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -0.4 (+10.4) | 166.1 (-12.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
| Jan 26, 2024 | DEN 111 – 110 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 84.0 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#280) | -3.3 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#252) | -0.46 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#237) | -0.99 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#284) | 0.479 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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