Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -500 SDAK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +1 | 221 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -14.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (+53.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -10.7 (-9.7) | 158.7 (+62.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -10.6 (-9.6) | 156.2 (+64.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -11.5 (-10.5) | 159.1 (+61.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -12.4 (-11.4) | 162.2 (+58.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#146) | -9.5 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | -1.24 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#184) | -1.73 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#205) | 0.416 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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