Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +100 SDAK -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +7 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -2.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -2.3 (-4.7) | 160.2 (+4.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -0.5 (-6.5) | 156.9 (+8.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -1.8 (-5.2) | 159.3 (+5.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -2.2 (-4.8) | 158.0 (+7.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
| Jan 26, 2024 | DEN 111 – 110 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 86.6 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#327) | -5.0 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#327) | -0.61 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#344) | -1.06 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#336) | 0.458 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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