Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | DEN -250 SDAK +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +20 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -6.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -5.0 (+15.0) | 161.7 (-1.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.7 (+15.3) | 157.1 (+2.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.6 (+15.4) | 159.9 (+0.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.7 (+15.3) | 160.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
| Jan 26, 2024 | DEN 111 – 110 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 81.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#222) | -7.3 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#244) | -0.88 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#246) | -1.07 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#245) | 0.437 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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