Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +150 DEN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -5.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.4 (+9.4) | 165.0 (+13.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.4 (+10.4) | 160.6 (+17.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.3 (+9.3) | 164.1 (+13.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.7 (+9.7) | 166.1 (+11.9) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 26, 2024 | DEN 111 – 110 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#323) | -1.9 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#311) | -0.68 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#314) | -0.82 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#331) | 0.461 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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