Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -440 LAF +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +26 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -12.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -11.8 (+14.2) | 139.3 (-13.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -10.0 (+16.0) | 140.1 (-14.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -12.8 (+13.2) | 140.3 (-14.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -11.8 (+14.2) | 141.6 (-15.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LAF 78 – 62 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-10 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#202) | -10.9 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#188) | -2.83 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#201) | -3.48 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.353 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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