Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -165 LAF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -2.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.3 (+1.7) | 131.7 (-11.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.3 (+3.7) | 130.9 (-10.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.4 (+3.6) | 131.0 (-11.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.9 (+3.1) | 133.5 (-13.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LAF 78 – 62 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#315) | -8.2 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#341) | -1.71 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#340) | -2.10 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#346) | 0.446 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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