Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -150 LAF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -1.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -1.5 (-0.5) | 137.8 (+3.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.8 (+0.2) | 137.4 (+3.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -0.2 (+0.8) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.9 (+0.1) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LAF 78 – 62 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#308) | -6.1 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#339) | -1.20 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#338) | -1.50 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#361) | 0.440 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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