Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -125 NAVY +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -0.3 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -0.2 (+16.2) | 130.3 (+9.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -0.0 (+16.0) | 129.5 (+10.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.6 (+16.6) | 126.2 (+13.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.1 (+15.9) | 127.6 (+12.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#314) | -4.9 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#298) | -1.62 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#305) | -2.16 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#289) | 0.404 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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