Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -130 NAVY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +10 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -2.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.6 (+9.4) | 137.7 (-25.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.6 (+9.4) | 136.5 (-24.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.3 (+8.7) | 136.1 (-24.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.1 (+8.9) | 136.6 (-24.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LAF 78 – 62 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#295) | -7.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#310) | -1.80 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#297) | -2.00 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#316) | 0.403 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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