Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +154 NAVY -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +15 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -6.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.9 (-10.1) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.7 (-9.3) | 135.3 (-20.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -5.1 (-9.9) | 136.4 (-21.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.3 (-9.7) | 137.2 (-22.2) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LAF 78 – 62 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#307) | -0.9 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#338) | -0.14 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#336) | -0.53 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#337) | 0.493 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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