Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GMU +100 VCU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -1.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.9 (+5.1) | 144.7 (+21.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.5 (+4.5) | 145.7 (+20.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.7 (+4.3) | 144.7 (+21.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -0.1 (+6.1) | 145.1 (+20.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | VCU 72 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#99) | 11.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#35) | 1.64 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#43) | 2.55 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#48) | 0.569 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 36.4% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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