Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -400 GMU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +20 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -7.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -6.7 (+13.3) | 138.4 (-14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -7.2 (+12.8) | 137.7 (-13.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -7.4 (+12.6) | 138.1 (-14.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -6.7 (+13.3) | 139.2 (-15.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#84) | 3.0 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#60) | 0.45 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#79) | 0.62 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#40) | 0.543 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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