Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -750 GMU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -8.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -8.2 (+7.8) | 131.4 (-7.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -7.9 (+8.1) | 133.3 (-9.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -7.8 (+8.2) | 132.2 (-8.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -7.6 (+8.4) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | VCU 72 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#37) | 7.9 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#54) | 1.97 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#48) | 2.85 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#43) | 0.602 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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