Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -400 GMU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -7.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -5.4 (-0.4) | 129.7 (+1.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -5.6 (-0.6) | 130.3 (+0.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.3 (-0.3) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -5.1 (-0.1) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | VCU 72 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#36) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#50) | 1.79 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#44) | 2.33 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#39) | 0.596 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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