Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -600 GMU +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -10.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -10.6 (-5.6) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -10.7 (-5.7) | 143.1 (-8.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -10.3 (-5.3) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -11.0 (-6.0) | 143.4 (-8.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | VCU 72 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#46) | 4.5 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#48) | 1.15 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#48) | 1.20 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#35) | 0.571 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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