Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -205 VCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +4 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -6.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.5 (-9.5) | 136.3 (-32.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.8 (-11.8) | 139.6 (-35.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.8 (-11.8) | 140.4 (-36.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.3 (-11.3) | 137.1 (-33.1) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | VCU 72 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#83) | 4.2 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#28) | 0.02 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#37) | 0.41 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#40) | 0.503 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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