Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BAY +124 HOU -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +22 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -0.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.1 (-23.1) | 141.9 (-9.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.1 (-23.1) | 144.2 (-12.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.0 (-23.0) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.1 (-23.1) | 143.5 (-11.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOU 77 – 64 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HOU 65 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOU 76 – 65 BAY |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HOU 82 – 76 BAY |
| Apr 3, 2021 | BAY 78 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#33) | 17.7 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#63) | 3.71 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#59) | 5.22 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.629 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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