Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | BAY +165 HOU -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -5.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -3.8 (-0.2) | 131.2 (-5.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -2.7 (-1.3) | 128.0 (-2.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -3.9 (-0.1) | 131.2 (-5.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -2.8 (-1.2) | 131.9 (-5.9) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOU 77 – 64 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HOU 77 – 55 BAY |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOU 76 – 65 BAY |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HOU 82 – 76 BAY |
| Apr 3, 2021 | BAY 78 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 19-1 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#26) | 24.6 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#45) | 3.80 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#42) | 4.96 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#47) | 0.643 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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