Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -1200 BAY +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -13.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.2 (+0.8) | 145.6 (-4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.9 (+0.1) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -14.7 (-1.7) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.9 (+0.1) | 145.8 (-4.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | HOU 77 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HOU 65 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOU 76 – 65 BAY |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HOU 82 – 76 BAY |
| Apr 3, 2021 | BAY 78 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 22.5 (#7) | 12.2 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#7) | 1.74 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#7) | 2.26 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#12) | 0.542 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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