Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BAY +120 HOU -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -3.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -0.5 (-5.5) | 138.4 (+19.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -1.1 (-4.9) | 134.1 (+23.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -0.1 (-6.1) | 137.2 (+20.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -0.2 (-5.8) | 138.9 (+19.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOU 77 – 64 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HOU 77 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HOU 65 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOU 76 – 65 BAY |
| Apr 3, 2021 | BAY 78 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#12) | 23.5 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#21) | 3.47 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#20) | 4.30 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#18) | 0.655 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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