Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -450 BAY +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -10.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -10.8 (+0.2) | 138.9 (+2.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -10.9 (+0.1) | 136.2 (+4.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -11.1 (-0.1) | 136.2 (+4.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -10.3 (+0.7) | 137.7 (+3.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOU 77 – 64 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HOU 77 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HOU 65 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HOU 82 – 76 BAY |
| Apr 3, 2021 | BAY 78 – 59 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-0 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#3) | 17.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#10) | 2.32 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#8) | 2.95 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#12) | 0.600 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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