Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -800 TXST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -14.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -10.5 (-9.5) | 149.3 (+15.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -13.0 (-12.0) | 148.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -11.2 (-10.2) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -11.6 (-10.6) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ARST 85 – 82 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#136) | -9.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#85) | -0.82 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#87) | -1.22 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#49) | 0.434 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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