Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +130 ARST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -0.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -0.6 (-7.6) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.1 (-7.1) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.2 (-6.8) | 143.6 (+7.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -0.3 (-6.7) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ARST 85 – 82 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#250) | -0.9 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#273) | -0.74 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#252) | -0.71 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#234) | 0.449 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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