Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -275 TXST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -7.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -5.4 (-2.4) | 139.8 (+27.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.9 (-1.9) | 140.8 (+26.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.5 (-2.5) | 136.4 (+30.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.2 (-2.2) | 137.5 (+29.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#170) | -3.9 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#242) | -0.83 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#225) | -0.77 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#255) | 0.488 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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