Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +200 ARST -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -4.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.0 (-7.0) | 148.4 (+10.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.1 (-7.9) | 147.2 (+11.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.3 (-7.7) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -3.4 (-7.6) | 148.7 (+10.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ARST 85 – 82 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#182) | 6.0 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#190) | 1.26 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#207) | 1.55 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#166) | 0.580 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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