Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +160 ARST -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +19 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -3.2 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.6 (-16.4) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.6 (-15.4) | 146.7 (+12.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.3 (-15.7) | 145.8 (+13.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -3.2 (-15.8) | 147.7 (+11.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ARST 85 – 82 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#293) | -0.5 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#257) | 1.19 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#250) | 1.68 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#317) | 0.569 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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