Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -425 TXST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -8.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.9 (+6.1) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.8 (+6.2) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -8.7 (+6.3) | 147.2 (-2.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.6 (+6.4) | 147.6 (-2.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ARST 85 – 82 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#93) | 0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#80) | 0.14 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#79) | -0.14 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#56) | 0.521 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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