Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NWST +170 AMCC -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -5.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -4.5 (+5.5) | 134.6 (+22.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -5.3 (+6.3) | 134.8 (+22.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -5.7 (+6.7) | 132.8 (+24.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -4.6 (+5.6) | 133.5 (+23.5) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | AMCC 71 – 59 NWST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | NWST 66 – 63 AMCC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMCC 73 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 20, 2024 | AMCC 72 – 61 NWST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | AMCC 79 – 68 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 13-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#293) | 0.6 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#322) | -0.10 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#306) | -0.05 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#322) | 0.517 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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