Northwestern State
Demons
66
–
63
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Southland
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Islanders
Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NWST +140 AMCC -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -4.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -2.9 (+5.9) | 130.9 (-1.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -3.1 (+6.1) | 132.1 (-3.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -2.6 (+5.6) | 131.3 (-2.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -2.4 (+5.4) | 131.7 (-2.7) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | AMCC 71 – 59 NWST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NWST 79 – 78 AMCC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMCC 73 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 20, 2024 | AMCC 72 – 61 NWST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | AMCC 79 – 68 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#226) | 0.4 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#225) | -0.33 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#210) | -0.33 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#222) | 0.501 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.